Prediction market bettors are increasingly expecting the U.S. economy to enter a recession.

The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs last month, raising concerns among observers that the economy may be "on the precipice of a recession."

The economy’s warning lights might not yet be flashing red, but they are certainly flashing yellow. The worst job numbers since the Great Recession, the slowest economic growth since COVID, and the worst inflation in nearly two years—these are not the signs of a healthy economy.

Expectations of a U.S. recession have risen notably since the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, as investors grow more concerned about the economic consequences of higher energy prices and geopolitical instability.

Or as a user in the Facebook group “Apple Users” put it more succinctly: “That new $599 Apple Neo MacBook is a major recession indicator.”

Recessions are usually seen as economic disasters, but some economists argue they can serve an important role. By slowing inflation, correcting asset bubbles, and reducing excess debt, downturns can sometimes reset an overheated economy.

Learn how to build financial resilience with emergency funds, diverse income streams, and smart investments to withstand economic downturns.

The U.S.-Israeli attack raises the risk of major oil supply disruption. Iran is the fourth-largest OPEC producer and sits on the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Wall Street veteran Jim Paulsen said tech is the only bright spot in the economy, comparing the bifurcation to the Mag 7 vs. the rest of the S&P 500.