The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of being ...

Michael Saylor identifies Solana and Ethereum as distribution rails for Bitcoin-backed digital credit at Strategy World 2026.

In terms of class probability, entrepreneurs and consumers have to decide which characteristics of a particular event are unique (and not relevant to the probability estimate) and which elements are ...

Our weekly simulation for U.S. Treasury yields and spreads. Read the latest update in the article series, as of February 6, 2026.

A multifractal spectrum called a weighted Cantor set model can describe how galaxies cluster, which is similar to other ...

Research is casting prediction markets as policy-relevant forecasting tools just as state regulators escalate efforts to ...

If you want to be a successful trader in the age of Artificial Intelligence, you must become a successful prompt engineer. This is not a technological trend. It is a structural shift in how ...

Prediction markets expect a Bitcoin price rally, but on-chain data and whale moves suggest a very different outcome may be ...

The FDA has opened the door to the use of Bayesian statistical methods in clinical trials. The worry: Introducing ...

The evidence is solid but not definitive, as the conclusions rely on the absence of changes in spatial breadth and would benefit from clearer statistical justification and a more cautious ...

AI & Society, states that algorithmic systems often construct competing but equally valid “model-worlds,” offering empirical support for a philosophical claim that evidence alone cannot uniquely ...

Researchers from the University of British Columbia argue that a widely used method to understand and predict flood risk has led scientists to miscalculate how forests can prevent major flooding. The ...